Climate Change and The Southeast

Peter Marsh
President, EcoLens Group 10/2/09

The following is a summary of research specific to the effects of climate change on the Southeastern United States. Economic impacts of climate change will occur across the United States, but with uneven distribution by region, within the economy and within society. Negative impacts will outweigh the positive for most sectors that provide essential goods and services. Climate change will place tremendous pressure on public sector budgets.

The Southeast states – Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North and South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and the Gulf Coast of Texas – may be some of the hardest hit by climate change in the US.

Having undergone rapid population growth during the 1970s-1990s (30%), the region is expected to continue growing, perhaps another 40% between 2000 and 2025. This growth has come in spite of economic transition from legacy industries including textiles, furniture manufacturing, and tobacco as well as shifts from global economic transitions.

Employment sectors fueling regional growth include financial services, higher education, advanced manufacturing, logistics, tourism, healthcare, retirement and senior living.

By value, the region produces about one quarter of US agricultural products; half of US timber supplies; and much of the nation’s fish, poultry, tobacco oil, coal and natural gas (Burkett et al. 2001). As such, the state economies are intricately tied to the condition of their natural resources.

The climate in the Southeast has gone through a warm period during the 1920s-40s, a cool period from 1950-1960, and is presently in another warm period that began in the 1970s.

There has been a 20-30% increase in precipitation over the last 100 years. The Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) model scenarios show continued warming through the 2090s, whereas the Hadley Centre model scenarios project less warming (Burkett et al. 2001) and about a 20% increase in precipitation throughout the region by 2100. Both models predict an increase in the heat index greater in the Southeast than in other US regions, 8-15ºF (4.5ºC-8.4ºC) or more (Burkett et al. 2001).

With warmer weather and warmer water in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, the region may experience an increased frequency and intensity of storms, sea-level rise, and the loss of important agricultural areas, crops and timber species.


Potential Impacts and Strategy Considerations
Increased Frequency and Intensity of
Major Weather Events

Pressure on infrastructure, increased repair and maintenance costs
Disruption of transportation and energy supplies
Impact on industrial and service sector productivity
Increased construction costs
Increase insurance / risk management costs
Burden on Federal, State and Local governmental budgets
Impact on water quality
Costal salination of potable aquifers
Impacts on agricultural and forest products
Ecosystem disruptions


Increase in Temperature

Significant increase in electricity consumption to cool the built environment
Change in design standards
Increase in refrigerant use, distribution and storage
Increase in ozone and smog
Human and animal health risk and productivity impact from heat waves
Urban heat island effect compounding anomalous highs
Change in precipitation trends and humidity levels
Increase in forest fire risk and severity
Increase in incidence, duration and severity of drought
Change in agricultural strategy / crop tolerance
Change and adaptation of forest ecosystems
Increase in pests and diseases / weakened ecosystem

Water Quantity and Quality

Decrease in potable water quantity and quality
Prolonged periods of severe drought
Decrease in groundwater saturation and flow rates in major tributaries
Limitations on development based on water system capacities
Increased state and county regulation of water use
Impact on hydroelectric and nuclear power generation
Decrease in steady rainfalls, increase in rapid high volume events
Impact of deforestation and development on
groundwater absorption rates
Increase in flood and storm-water management design standards

Air Quality

Increased CO2 emissions from coal power plants
Increased ozone levels from heat and pollution
Health and productivity loss from respiratory impacts
Restrictions on development to meet EPA standards
Impact of pending governmental regulations on GHG emissions
Impact on tourism and senior living industries
Impact on agriculture and forests


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